Gold Mercury's Future of Europe Scenarios 2025 proved correct about how Brexit diminished Europe's security. Now, we are at war.
Gold Mercury International identified before the 2016 Brexit Referendum that the UK's exit from the EU would signal a significant weakness in the bloc's unity and would lead to chaos in regional security by emboldening Russia. We were right.
Our Europe 2025 Scenarios have been proven correct.
BACKGROUND TO THE SCENARIOS
BRAND EU is the independent project of Gold Mercury International that aims to create a stronger European identity and brand. In 2026, we wrote the report: “BREXIT AND THE FUTURE OF EUROPE - SCENARIOS 2016- 2025”, four scenarios looking into the potential futures of Europe and their impact on the UK and the world. In this report, Nicolas De Santis, President of Gold Mercury International and founder of the BRAND EU Centre, examines how the difference between a ‘Brexit’ or ‘Bremain’ can lead to four very different European scenarios that impact the entire world.
“Brexit was a historic vote that changed the future of the entire continent. Gold Mercury’s scenarios report clearly show that Brexit generated long-term uncertainty, instability, and chaos for the UK, Europe, and the world. We are all paying the price of Brexit. By showing that the EU is not entirely united and weakening our message of unity, peace in Europe was put at risk again, emboldening Russia. ”
The Brexit scenarios are based on two key questions:
1| Will people’s identity become more nationalistic, or will they see themselves more as global citizens sharing one planet and universal values?
2| In the future, will Europe be more divided or united?
The Four Scenarios of the Future of Europe
DOWNLOAD REPORT: Click on the image to download the FUTURE OF EUROPE report.
These two questions address people’s perceptions of self-identity and how they feel about supranational concepts such as ‘global citizenship’ and ‘European identity/citizenship’. The scenarios also explore what would happen if Europe became more united or divided.
This Brexit report aims to illustrate these diverse scenarios and examine what kind of future each one will bring if certain paths and self-identities are chosen. This analysis is designed to be easily understood by all, regardless of their familiarity with the topic, and clearly shows that the citizens’ support or opposition to the EU will have a dramatic impact on themselves, their community, and the future of the world. As such, the UK’s EU referendum was not merely a national referendum but a global one.
USING GREEK MYTHOLOGY TO DESCRIBE THE FOUR SCENARIOS
The four scenarios are:
Scenario 1) Icarus’s Fall – Breakdown of Europe
Scenario 2) Ulysses’ Sirens Song – EU: Loss of combined power in the world
Scenario 3) Achilles’ Heel – The EU maintains the current status quo and rests on its laurels.
Scenario 4) Hercules’ Labours – Team Europe: The EU as a force for good in the world.
The four scenarios described range from the collapse of the European Union and the subsequent global chaos to the continuation of the European Union project as a force for good in the world.
Our four Brexit scenarios using Greek mythology.
SIX CRUCIAL THEMES FOR THE FUTURE OF EUROPE
At the same time, the four scenarios focus on six crucial themes relating to the EU: EU Citizenship: Rights and Identity, EU Security and Peace, EU Single Market, Euro Currency, EU Enlargement and Neighbourhood, and The EU as a Global Actor.
Four Scenarios and Six Core Themes
The document provides a ‘big picture’ approach and a future vision of the true meaning and consequences of people’s Brexit vote by objectively showing and raising awareness among the population about the risks and opportunities that our present decisions carry on EU matters.
The four scenarios can and must learn from the lessons of the past, especially from the devastating lessons of WWI and WW2, when Europe was disunited, to reflect a very real scenario of a break-up of Europe and to what it can lead to in an uncertain world. An awareness of the different worlds described in these scenarios offers the opportunity to the people of the UK, Europe and the world to realise how important the EU has been in bringing stability to the continent.
“Our Future of Europe Scenarios showed the dangers of leaving the EU regarding national security and negative economic impact. What Brexiteers called ‘Project Fear’ was ‘Project Truth and Reality’. We now know what side of history the Brexiteers have led us towards.”
SCENARIOS AS A TOOL TO GENERATE FUTURE NARRATIVES
The scenario project is also directed towards all European citizens across the 28 member states of the European Union. In this way, BRAND EU and Gold Mercury International aim to show the outstanding achievements the EU has delivered so far and portray how said achievements could be further advanced, improved, worsened or even destroyed, depending on how the UK voted in the EU referendum. Sadly, Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Scenario thinking is a way of approaching the future to define potential futures and paths and create a long-term strategy for private and public sector organisations and civil society. Scenarios develop a frame of reference that decisions can be based on to achieve commonly desired outcomes. A scenario exercise is essential because, amid a deep conflict (like deciding to stay in or leave the EU), it can create a narrative that brings people together from across diverse organisations, affiliations and areas of thought and teach them to think creatively about the shared future of their community, country or continent and portray how said achievements could be further advanced, improved, worsened or even destroyed, depending on how the UK voted in the EU referendum. Sadly, Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
LAUNCH OF SCENARIOS REPORT - LIVE INTERVIEW WITH GOLD MERCURY INTERNATIONAL PRESIDENT, NICOLAS DE SANTIS CUADRA, ON CADENA SER RADIO - HOY POR HOY PROGRAMME (SPANISH)
REPORT AUTHOR
The author of the report is Nicolas De Santis, President of Gold Mercury International and founder of the BRAND EU Centre.